The Illusion of Predictability
We designers, in our infinite wisdom, often fancy ourselves soothsayers of sorts.
We designers, in our infinite wisdom, often fancy ourselves soothsayers of sorts. We pore over user data, conduct focus groups, and create elaborate personas, all in the name of "predicting" what users want. We write gospels on social media with claims so outrageous that sometimes I feel as if someone hit me in the stomach.
Remember when everyone thought skeuomorphism was the future of UI design? Or when we were convinced that QR codes would revolutionize how we interact with the world? Or when Google introduced material design as the answer to interface problems?
In the design world, we have our fair share of "experts" - UX gurus, design thinking evangelists, and self-proclaimed visionaries who claim to know exactly what users want. But let's be real for a moment. If we were truly as prescient as we claim, wouldn't every product be a runaway success? Wouldn't every interface be intuitive to the point of invisibility? The fact that we still have to explain to our users how to use data tables suggests otherwise.
Not only are we often wrong in our predictions, but our attempts to control and predict outcomes can actually make us more vulnerable to Black Swan events. When we design based on what we think we know, we're essentially putting all our eggs in one basket. We're creating systems optimized for a specific set of conditions - conditions that can change in the blink of an eye.
So, should designers just throw up their hands in despair and resign themselves to a life of random button placements and arbitrary color choices? Of course not. (Although, let's be honest, that might lead to some interesting results.)
Instead, we need to embrace uncertainty. This means moving away from rigid, prescriptive design processes toward more fluid, iterative approaches based on principles. It means being willing to question our assumptions, challenge our preconceptions, and admit when we're wrong.
Here's the beautiful irony in all of this: By embracing unpredictability, we actually become better predictors.
So the next time you find yourself tempted to proclaim, "This is definitely what users want," take a step back. Embrace the chaos. And maybe, just maybe, you'll create something truly revolutionary. After all, in a world where the only constant is change 1, the most predictable thing we can do is expect the unexpected.